Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 5.16.24

16
May 24
Dear New World Investor: The headline Consumer Price Index increased 3.4% year-over-year in April, a tick slower than March’s 3.5% and right on the consensus estimate. The month-over-month change was 0.3%. Year-over-year core inflation, leaving out food and energy, was +3.6% in April, down from +3.8% in March. Monthly...

Read More »

New World Investor – 5.9.24

10
May 24
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s April jobs report was very weak. The economy added 175,000 jobs, far below the 240,000 estimate. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, hiring slowed, the length of the average workweek ticked down, and wages rose less than forecast. Click for larger graphic Also last...

Read More »

Flash Alert: Buy Palantir (PLTR)

07
May 24
I was planning to issue a Buy recommendation on Palantir (PLTR) in this Thursday’s letter, but after the company reported a great quarter today Wall Street is clobbering the stock in the aftermarket. That’s dumb, and I want you to take advantage of them. I’ll have the basic write-up...

Read More »

New World Investor – 5.2.24

03
May 24
Dear New World Investor: CRISPR is an acronym for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats. They are DNA sequences found in the genomes of bacteria. These sequences are derived from DNA fragments of killed agents that had previously infected the bacteria. They are...

Read More »

New World Investor – 4.25-24

25
Apr 24
Dear New World Investor: Bloomberg said the tailwind from surging immigration would boost March quarter GDP. Click for larger graphic Oops. Real GDP only grew at 1.6%, short of all estimates including the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow +2.7%. Could it be that housing massive illegal immigration from South America, Asia,...

Read More »

New World Investor – 4.18.24

18
Apr 24
Dear New World Investor: On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell said inflation is coming down slower than he expected, so it’s “high – but not higher – for longer.” Wall Street did a decent job of panicking the weak hands into selling them some cheap stock as the CNN Fear...

Read More »

New World Investor – 4.11.24

11
Apr 24
Dear New World Investor: Is the economy hot or not…and does the Fed care? The answer is that it is stronger than the Fed expected, but they don’t directly care. What they care about is inflation and unemployment – those are their two mandates. Inflation We got the March...

Read More »

New World Investor – 4.4.24

04
Apr 24
Dear New World Investor: Wall Street wants you to focus on how many times the Fed will cut rates this year even though economic data is coming in stronger than they expected. Almost every brokerage firm expects a quarter-point cut at the June 12 Fed meeting, followed by two...

Read More »

New World Investor – 3.28.24

28
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: Although tomorrow is a stock market holiday, we are supposed to get the February Personal Consumption Index inflation. Core PCE is estimated at over 3%, which will keep the Fed in “High – but not higher – for longer” mode. Click for larger graphic h/t...

Read More »

New World Investor – 3.21.24

21
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: The Fed met and said the economy is much stronger than they expected but they still expect three quarter-point reductions in the Fed funds rate this year. I think they’re wrong on both counts. You could obsess over the gory details or you could just...

Read More »