Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 7.25.24

26
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s first estimate of June quarter real GDP growth surprised me by coming in at 2.8%, pretty much right on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate I reported last week at +2.7%. I wrote: “The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real...

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New World Investor – 7.18.24

18
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: There’s a lot of optimism going into the June quarter earnings season. With the bar set this high, watching how companies perform and, most importantly, how the market reacts will be key. Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets Since I moved Apple and Meta to...

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New World Investor – 7.11.24

11
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s June Consumer Price Index report showed headline inflation actually fell 0.1% from May and increased only 3.9% from last year. Both numbers were below May (0.0% MoM and 3.3% YoY) and below the consensus estimates for +0.0% MoM and +3.1% YoY. This is...

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New World Investor – 7.3.24

03
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: We got the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report last Friday morning. Year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 2.6%, the lowest in three years. The Fed pays close attention to the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy price changes. Core PCE also was...

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New World Investor – 6.27.24

27
Jun 24
Dear New World Investor: We get the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report tomorrow morning. Rent is only 19% of the PCE compared to 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed pays close attention to the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy price changes....

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New World Investor – 6.20.24

21
Jun 24
Dear New World Investor: I had an interesting exchange about PayPal with a subscriber who has been in financial services for over 40 years. He wrote: “Usually hedge funds and institutional investors hold stocks for a long period of time. Retail investors like myself do not unless it’s an...

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New World Investor – 6.13.24

14
Jun 24
Dear New World Investor: A major PC crash slowed and shortened this issue. No fractal, GDPNow, or bitcoin graphics. My apologies for that – the little laptop did its best and we’ll be good to go next week. Yesterday’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May showed a...

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New World Investor – 6.6.24

07
Jun 24
Dear New World Investor: Job openings weakened, manufacturing activity weakened, and the main drivers behind the resilient American consumer – real disposable income and the savings rate – are losing steam at the same time. Real disposable incomes, pinched by ongoing inflation, have risen only modestly over the past...

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New World Investor – 5.30.24

30
May 24
Dear New World Investor: Today’s GDP revisions boosted the December quarter from +3.3% to +3.4%. but reduced the March quarter estimate from +1.6% to +1.3% due to downward revisions to consumer spending. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance This does not support my forecast for a small recession...

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New World Investor – 5.23.24

23
May 24
Dear New World Investor: We’ll get the next Personal Consumption Expenditures Index on May 31 and the next Consumer Price Index at 8:30am on June 12. That same day, at 2:00pm, the Fed issues their next meeting results. Albert Edwards, the Société Générale strategist, wrote: “I believe the Fed...

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