Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: The July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% month-over-month from June, matching the consensus expectation. PPI was up 2.2% year-over-year, versus 2.7% in June. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat versus the consensus for +0.2%. It is up 2.4% year-over-year, down...

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Dear New World Investor: The global sell-off that began late last week on fears about US economic growth continued to start the new week. Japan’s Nikkei slumped 12% overnight on Monday, contributing to a cautious feeling in the US market. The price action in Japanese stocks was related to...

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Dear New World Investor: Welcome to August! The Fed held the Fed funds rate steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50% and all but announced they will cut in September. They will, too. As leakee-in-chief @NickTimiraos pointed out: * * Policy looks more restrictive now than it did earlier this...

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Dear New World Investor: There’s a lot of optimism going into the June quarter earnings season. With the bar set this high, watching how companies perform and, most importantly, how the market reacts will be key. Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets Since I moved Apple and Meta to...

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Dear New World Investor: This morning’s June Consumer Price Index report showed headline inflation actually fell 0.1% from May and increased only 3.9% from last year. Both numbers were below May (0.0% MoM and 3.3% YoY) and below the consensus estimates for +0.0% MoM and +3.1% YoY. This is...

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Dear New World Investor: We got the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report last Friday morning. Year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 2.6%, the lowest in three years. The Fed pays close attention to the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy price changes. Core PCE also was...

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Dear New World Investor: We get the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report tomorrow morning. Rent is only 19% of the PCE compared to 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed pays close attention to the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy price changes....

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Dear New World Investor: I had an interesting exchange about PayPal with a subscriber who has been in financial services for over 40 years. He wrote: “Usually hedge funds and institutional investors hold stocks for a long period of time. Retail investors like myself do not unless it’s an...

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