Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 9.12.24

12
Sep 24
Dear New World Investor: The August payrolls report showed 142,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, fewer than the 165,000 expected by economists. July was revised down from +116,000 to +89,000. But the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August, the first decrease in the unemployment rate...

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New World Investor – 9.5.24

05
Sep 24
Dear New World Investor: There is an asymmetric opportunity available – relatively low risk for a relatively large reward. It’s relatively low risk because it’s cheap because Wall Street hates it and it’s a lower-risk legal structure. It’s a relatively large reward because – well – Wall Street is...

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New World Investor – 8.29.24

29
Aug 24
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s first revision of the June quarter real GDP report raised the annual growth rate from 2.8% to a healthy 3.0%. That’s more than double the sluggish 1.4% growth rate in the March quarter. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance Consumer spending, which...

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New World Investor – 8.22.24

22
Aug 24
Dear New World Investor: Jackson Hole is a valley and wilderness recreation area in western Wyoming. It’s bordered by the jagged peaks of the Tetons, close to Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park. It’s home to upscale ski resorts, rustic campsites, dude ranches, and – tomorrow morning...

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New World Investor – 8.15.24

15
Aug 24
Dear New World Investor: The July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% month-over-month from June, matching the consensus expectation. PPI was up 2.2% year-over-year, versus 2.7% in June. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat versus the consensus for +0.2%. It is up 2.4% year-over-year, down...

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New World Investor – 8.8.24

08
Aug 24
Dear New World Investor: The global sell-off that began late last week on fears about US economic growth continued to start the new week. Japan’s Nikkei slumped 12% overnight on Monday, contributing to a cautious feeling in the US market. The price action in Japanese stocks was related to...

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New World Investor – 8.1.24

01
Aug 24
Dear New World Investor: Welcome to August! The Fed held the Fed funds rate steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50% and all but announced they will cut in September. They will, too. As leakee-in-chief @NickTimiraos pointed out: * * Policy looks more restrictive now than it did earlier this...

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New World Investor – 7.25.24

26
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s first estimate of June quarter real GDP growth surprised me by coming in at 2.8%, pretty much right on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate I reported last week at +2.7%. I wrote: “The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real...

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New World Investor – 7.18.24

18
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: There’s a lot of optimism going into the June quarter earnings season. With the bar set this high, watching how companies perform and, most importantly, how the market reacts will be key. Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets Since I moved Apple and Meta to...

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New World Investor – 7.11.24

11
Jul 24
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s June Consumer Price Index report showed headline inflation actually fell 0.1% from May and increased only 3.9% from last year. Both numbers were below May (0.0% MoM and 3.3% YoY) and below the consensus estimates for +0.0% MoM and +3.1% YoY. This is...

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