Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Click for larger graphic Except it wasn’t “So-Crates”, as Bill and Ted called him. This quote was crafted by a student, Kenneth John Freeman, for his Cambridge dissertation published in 1907. Freeman did not claim that the passage under analysis was a direct quotation of...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s headline Consumer Personal Expenditures Index (CPE) rose 2.2% in August — just two-tenths away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. That was lower than estimates of 2.3% and down from 2.5% in July. The core CPE excluding food and energy – the Fed’s...

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Dear New World Investor: Serious fiscal stimulus in China, stellar Micron earnings, another wave of solid economic data, Powell not backing off from cutting rates, and we get new all-time stock market highs. What could go wrong? Well, Manufacturing continues to weaken as Services continue to expand, and services...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed! The FED!! THE FED!!! Well, I was wrong and we’re all glad that’s over. For the first time in four years, Fed Chairman Powell cut the Fed funds rate. Instead of the quarter-point cut I expected, he bowed to Wall Street’s demands for...

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Dear New World Investor: There is an asymmetric opportunity available – relatively low risk for a relatively large reward. It’s relatively low risk because it’s cheap because Wall Street hates it and it’s a lower-risk legal structure. It’s a relatively large reward because – well – Wall Street is...

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Dear New World Investor: Jackson Hole is a valley and wilderness recreation area in western Wyoming. It’s bordered by the jagged peaks of the Tetons, close to Grand Teton National Park and Yellowstone National Park. It’s home to upscale ski resorts, rustic campsites, dude ranches, and – tomorrow morning...

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Dear New World Investor: The July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% month-over-month from June, matching the consensus expectation. PPI was up 2.2% year-over-year, versus 2.7% in June. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat versus the consensus for +0.2%. It is up 2.4% year-over-year, down...

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Dear New World Investor: The global sell-off that began late last week on fears about US economic growth continued to start the new week. Japan’s Nikkei slumped 12% overnight on Monday, contributing to a cautious feeling in the US market. The price action in Japanese stocks was related to...

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