Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 11.21.24

21
Nov 24
Dear New World Investor: NOTICE: No newsletter next week, as unlike days of yore nothing much happens during Thanksgiving week. The day after Thanksgiving used to be a major tell for the next market move – now it’s a nothingburger. I’ll be back on December 5, more than...

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New World Investor – 11.14.24

14
Nov 24
Dear New World Investor: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline number increased 2.6%, right on the consensus but a bit faster than September’s 2.4%. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, the same as the last three months and also right on the consensus. As usual, a few outliers warped...

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New World Investor – 11.7.24

08
Nov 24
Dear New World Investor: The Fed cut the Fed funds rate a quarter-point (25bps) today, as I expected. They removed language from the September statement that they have “gained greater confidence” that inflation was moving towards their 2% target. Traders have begun to trim bets for another quarter-point cut...

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New World Investor – 10.31.24 (Halloween Edition)

01
Nov 24
Dear New World Investor: It’s been a week of economic news and earnings. The news paints a soft landing picture, although I still think we’ll see a mild recession no matter who wins the election. September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): Job openings fell more than expected...

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New World Investor – 10.24.24

25
Oct 24
Dear New World Investor: Gold and silver showed no sign of slowing their rise this week as investors continue to pour into precious metals. Gold futures touched fresh records on Monday, rising as much as 0.8% to hover near highs of $2,750 per ounce. Silver futures gained more than...

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New World Investor – 10.17.24

17
Oct 24
Dear New World Investor: There now are more assets in passive (index) funds than actively-managed funds. That means winners created by active fund buying keep winning as passive funds buy them and vice-versa. There are real opportunities in (1) identifying potential winners early and (2) identifying potential turnarounds that...

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New World Investor – 10.10.24

10
Oct 24
Dear New World Investor: Click for larger graphic Except it wasn’t “So-Crates”, as Bill and Ted called him. This quote was crafted by a student, Kenneth John Freeman, for his Cambridge dissertation published in 1907. Freeman did not claim that the passage under analysis was a direct quotation of...

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New World Investor – 10.3.24

03
Oct 24
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s headline Consumer Personal Expenditures Index (CPE) rose 2.2% in August — just two-tenths away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. That was lower than estimates of 2.3% and down from 2.5% in July. The core CPE excluding food and energy – the Fed’s...

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New World Investor – 9.26.24

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Sep 24
Dear New World Investor: Serious fiscal stimulus in China, stellar Micron earnings, another wave of solid economic data, Powell not backing off from cutting rates, and we get new all-time stock market highs. What could go wrong? Well, Manufacturing continues to weaken as Services continue to expand, and services...

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New World Investor – 9.19.24

19
Sep 24
Dear New World Investor: The Fed! The FED!! THE FED!!! Well, I was wrong and we’re all glad that’s over. For the first time in four years, Fed Chairman Powell cut the Fed funds rate. Instead of the quarter-point cut I expected, he bowed to Wall Street’s demands for...

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