Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: The Fed raised the Fed funds rate ¾ of a percent (75 basis points or bps) to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The cumulative rate hike for June and July is the most aggressive since the early 1980s, yet the stock market exploded higher....

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Dear New World Investor: Tuesday was a 17:1 up day (advancing volume/declining volume), the best day since March 24, 2020. Combined with Friday’s 11:1 up day, it was the second 10:1 up day in three sessions. In the past, after two 10:1-or-better up days within three months without a...

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Dear New World Investor: Happy Bastille Day! July 14 is the French National Day celebrating the anniversary of the storming of the Bastille on July 14, 1789, a major event of the French Revolution. In the US, we could be celebrating the likely end of Fed fear as the...

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Dear New World Investor: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes from their June 14-15 meeting said: “Participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.” OK, that negative is in the market. At the July 26-27 meeting, a...

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Dear New World Investor: The third estimate of March quarter real GDP growth released yesterday showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth, a bit worse than the 1.5% previously reported. The update primarily reflects a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (consumers buying less) that was partly offset...

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Dear New World Investor: The economy is slowing rapidly. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.4 in June from 57.0 in May, missing expectations of 56.0 and pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity in almost two years – the second-weakest since July 2020....

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Dear New World Investor: What a week! After last Friday’s mini-crash (see below), the S&P 500 entered a bear market on Monday, the Fed raised the funds rate 3/4 of a point yesterday, the biggest increase since 1994, and stocks closed today at their lowest since December 2020. Investors...

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Dear New World Investor: I spent this week looking at Snap (SNAP), hoping I could recommend it as a first step towards taking advantage of the bear market in high tech, but – nope. I really like the way they are getting ready for the metaverse, which I think...

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Dear New World Investor: None of our stocks reported earnings this week and there hasn’t been a lot of news, so I thought I’d have a discussion with you about the direction I’d like to take New World Investor. I still think we are entering a 15-year upcycle...

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Dear New World Investor: Sometimes it’s more important to figure out where you are than try to forecast what’s going to happen. This is one of those times. Here are eight things you should be looking at. 1. Let’s start with inflation. As you know, the April Consumer...

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