Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: I spent this week looking at Snap (SNAP), hoping I could recommend it as a first step towards taking advantage of the bear market in high tech, but – nope. I really like the way they are getting ready for the metaverse, which I think...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: None of our stocks reported earnings this week and there hasn’t been a lot of news, so I thought I’d have a discussion with you about the direction I’d like to take New World Investor. I still think we are entering a 15-year upcycle...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Sometimes it’s more important to figure out where you are than try to forecast what’s going to happen. This is one of those times. Here are eight things you should be looking at. 1. Let’s start with inflation. As you know, the April Consumer...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Well, I know this feels bad. But for the second time in a week, the S&P 500 touched the bear market trigger (3855 – down 20% from its all-time high) and bounced. Yet sentiment is extremely negative. Nearly $81 billion exited stock and bond funds...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: This is a difficult, miserable market with only a few bright spots. First, virtually everyone is bearish – “investor sentiment is so bearish, it’s bullish.” When everyone who is going to sell has sold, stocks go up. Second, this drop – painful as it is...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Powell giveth and the markets taketh away. Yesterday, the Fed increased the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points – ½ of 1%. It was the first 50 basis rate hike in 22 years but exactly as expected and the market yawned. Then, in his...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Earnings season is underway. There are always high-profile misses – looking at you, Netflix – but the key is that overall estimates keep on being revised up. Since the beginning of this earnings season, March quarter S&P 500 earnings have been revised up 2.1% to...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: March quarter earnings reports so far are pretty good, with the notable exception of Netflix. Our stocks start reporting next week with the big guys – Apple, Corning, Gilead, and Meta – going first, as usual. May 9 is the major Russian holiday marking their...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: The headline March Consumer Price Index hit a 40-year high of +8.5%, yet yields fell on Treasury paper because the core CPI excluding food and energy was up “only” 0.3% from February, compared to the 0.5% expected. The core numbers will slow quickly and the...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Soon to be Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard kneecapped the rally by saying the Fed will run down their balance sheet aggressively, perhaps at $95 billion every month, beginning as soon as next month. The 10-year Treasury note closed today with a 2.652% yield while...

Read More »