Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: The economy is slowing rapidly. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.4 in June from 57.0 in May, missing expectations of 56.0 and pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity in almost two years – the second-weakest since July 2020....

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Dear New World Investor: What a week! After last Friday’s mini-crash (see below), the S&P 500 entered a bear market on Monday, the Fed raised the funds rate 3/4 of a point yesterday, the biggest increase since 1994, and stocks closed today at their lowest since December 2020. Investors...

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Dear New World Investor: I spent this week looking at Snap (SNAP), hoping I could recommend it as a first step towards taking advantage of the bear market in high tech, but – nope. I really like the way they are getting ready for the metaverse, which I think...

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Dear New World Investor: None of our stocks reported earnings this week and there hasn’t been a lot of news, so I thought I’d have a discussion with you about the direction I’d like to take New World Investor. I still think we are entering a 15-year upcycle...

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Dear New World Investor: Sometimes it’s more important to figure out where you are than try to forecast what’s going to happen. This is one of those times. Here are eight things you should be looking at. 1. Let’s start with inflation. As you know, the April Consumer...

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Dear New World Investor: Well, I know this feels bad. But for the second time in a week, the S&P 500 touched the bear market trigger (3855 – down 20% from its all-time high) and bounced. Yet sentiment is extremely negative. Nearly $81 billion exited stock and bond funds...

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Dear New World Investor: This is a difficult, miserable market with only a few bright spots. First, virtually everyone is bearish – “investor sentiment is so bearish, it’s bullish.” When everyone who is going to sell has sold, stocks go up. Second, this drop – painful as it is...

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Dear New World Investor: Powell giveth and the markets taketh away. Yesterday, the Fed increased the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points – ½ of 1%. It was the first 50 basis rate hike in 22 years but exactly as expected and the market yawned. Then, in his...

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Dear New World Investor: Earnings season is underway. There are always high-profile misses – looking at you, Netflix – but the key is that overall estimates keep on being revised up. Since the beginning of this earnings season, March quarter S&P 500 earnings have been revised up 2.1% to...

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Dear New World Investor: March quarter earnings reports so far are pretty good, with the notable exception of Netflix. Our stocks start reporting next week with the big guys – Apple, Corning, Gilead, and Meta – going first, as usual. May 9 is the major Russian holiday marking their...

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